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travmg commented on a news article Oct 4th 2013, 3:50am
Thanks for justifying Canyon's position on the list. Would like to add that their 8-10 runners swept the most recent frosh/soph race vs. brea and elmo 1-3 and finished with 21 pts. The depth is there!
26 comment(s)
watchout

gibbz, on , said:

That's pretty bold putting Westlake back with Desert Hill, Herriman, and Mountain View when they've thrashed on those 3 all season. Not to mention beating Orem by about 50 points at the Westlake Classic.


That was posted on October 3.
Westlake Classic was on October 4.
Orem was missing two of their top 6 at the Westlake Classic, which would have moved them up with Davis and Lone Peak.

As for meets that had actually happened before that post was made?
-Westlake finished third at their Pre-Regional meet (82/79:09) while Herriman was fifth (108/79:51)
-Westlake finished fifth at BYU (138/86:35.8), with Desert Hills placing third (125/86:15.2) and Mountain View seventh (166/87:04.7).
-Westlake would have won the combined-flight race at Wasatch Rendezvous over Mountain View 35-63, but timewise it was closer at 82:28.3 to 82:40.1

So yes, aside from Desert Hills at BYU, Westlake had beaten all those teams. But the margin was never huge, and team results don't point out everything about the level of performance the individual athletes from those teams have shown over the multiple weeks of racing.

But this is all beside the point, because since that post, the Westlake Classic happened where Westlake ran their best race yet. That moved them up a group.
gibbz
But Westlake did end up beating Desert Hills at Nebo a couple weeks later even with only 2 of their varsity having really good races. As for Herriman, consider this: Were Herriman's 4A state champion team's times at region last year pitted up against Westlake's times, from the Westlake Classic, in a dual meet the score would be 25-36 for Westlake. That margin may not be that wide but it never will be in a dual meet.
watchout

RunningPrince, on , said:

watchout if you have time and haven't already seen it go look up the results at the Westlake Classic in Utah on September 4th, a lot of very good nationally ranked teams in that boys Varsity race and very very close score. Only 13 points separating the 5th place team and the 1st place team.


Already posted the ratings on the Utah forum.

Looking at the Pat Amato Invite (CO) right now... looks like Laramie WY did almost exactly what I outlined above. If their #1/2 runners were as fast as they could be, then that's going to move them up in the next update!

EDIT: Looks like Laramie's top duo (and normal #3/4) weren't as fast as they have been, unfortunately, but it is an improvement for their #5 (Freeman).


Pat Amato CO Ratings estimate (200.0 ~ 14:37)

Boys =

1 - Jonah Henry, Sr - 15:37.7 - Laramie High School - 179.3
2 - Chris Henry, So - 15:40.9 - Laramie High School - 178.2
3 - Shane Rhodes, Jr - 15:49.5 - Cherry Creek HS - 175.3
4 - Ethan Gonzales, Sr - 15:50.7 - Broomfield High School - 174.9
5 - Connor Lockwood, Sr - 15:54.6 - Arvada West High School - 173.6
6 - Jake Lucero, Sr - 15:58.7 - Douglas County - 172.1
7 - Daniel Book, Jr - 15:59.6 - Cherry Creek HS - 171.8
8 - Keaton Schelir, So - 16:00.4 - Fossil Ridge - 171.6
9 - Sean Paiz, Jr - 16:03.9 - Thornton High School - 170.4
10 - Satchel Caldwell, Jr - 16:04.9 - Boulder HS - 170.0


1 - Jonah Henry, Sr - 15:37.7 - Laramie High School - 179.3
2 - Chris Henry, So - 15:40.9 - Laramie High School - 178.2
20 - Jacob Morgan, So - 16:17.5 - Laramie High School - 165.7
32 - Jonathon Freeman, Jr - 16:37.2 - Laramie High School - 159.0
34 - Heath Geil-Haggerty, Jr - 16:38.3 - Laramie High School - 158.6
53 - Kevin Baldwin, Sr - 17:01.7 - Laramie High School - 150.6
116 - Calder Kempema, Sr - 17:59.7 - Laramie High School - 130.8
RunningPrince
watchout if you have time and haven't already seen it go look up the results at the Westlake Classic in Utah on September 4th, a lot of very good nationally ranked teams in that boys Varsity race and very very close score. Only 13 points separating the 5th place team and the 1st place team.
watchout
Laramie absolutely has a chance. They are sitting on the end of the national bubble (US#50-55) and around NW#7-10. All they really need is for their #5 to be mixing it up with their #3/4 guys, Jacob Morgan and Heath Geil-Haggerty. If they can do that, they'd be looking very good for a top-5 finish in the NW. They have a good front two, and a solid enough #3/4, so that's the only piece missing at this point. The step from potential NW top-5 to potential NXN Invite would probably mean their #3/4 have to close the gap even more on their front duo though... say, within 30-45 seconds. But for a potential top-5 NW finish, the #5 runner is the concern.
RunAB
Watchout. How about Laramie, Wyoming? How do they stack up with the Utah teams and the other Northwest teams? They have had some great success in Colorado and South Dakota and are well ahead of everyone in Wyoming. Do they have a chance?
watchout

cerutty fan, on , said:

I don't think you're crazy for agreeing with 44 out of 60 pollsters, but I do think you are crazy for following college football :)



Ha! Fair enough!
cerutty fan
If we're going for football analogies here, I'll say that a meet with runners only competing against those in the same grade level is a bit like the NFL Combine.

Had West Virginia not been blown out 37-0 by #25 Maryland the week before, their narrow margin of victory over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State would likely have been enough to rank them ahead of the Cowboys.

I don't think you're crazy for agreeing with 44 out of 60 pollsters, but I do think you are crazy for following college football :)
watchout
You might find it interesting to know that 44 of the 60 voters in the AP College Football poll had Oklahoma State in their top 25 this week, and 0 had West Virginia in their top 25 this week, despite the fact that West Virginia beat Oklahoma State 30-21 last weekend.

Though maybe my opinion will change in the next few weeks, this week I would have voted the same - maybe all 45 of us would be crazy, but we'd still be in the majority. Just goes to show that I'm certainly not the only rankster who would place a team that to this point has seemed to be better ahead of a team that beat them when they met on the field. :)

Sometimes, the teams that seem to be better are going to lose, or teams that win might not have been the best to date this season. That happens, especially in cross country when there are dozens of teams on the field at the same time, and especially team scores are determined not only by the athletes and single competing teams, but the entirety of the field they are competing against. Team scores in a cross country meet are a representation of how well a team does on that day, on that course, against that field. The distinction of whether Team A is better than Team B is more complex than that, especially since we have more than one meet to judge teams with.

Note: I'm not saying the difference between Oklahoma State and West Virginia in college football this year is the same as the difference between, say, Brea Olinda and Canyon (Anaheim) boys cross country, it was just the first scenario that came to my mind.
cerutty fan
Two things to say here.

1. I really do appreciate the lists you've put together! It's fun to check out the teams.
2. I think it's crazy to put more weight into your algorithm than the reality of head-to-head competitions that have taken place.
LPHSXC
When Lone Peak lost to American Fork at Wasatch by 14 points they were also without their third runner.
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travmg posted a photo Jul 24th 2013, 8:22pm
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