\n40 deep is great! Watchout it seems to me like there is a bit of a gap between 4 or 5 and the rest of the field. Do the speed ratings show that? Gig Harbor beat North Central quite handily at Firman and Dana Hills was not as impressive at their own invitational as they have been in past years. Those two, along with York, usually come along very well at the end of the season, but from my view, the talent loaded in the top 5 teams maybe too much to overcome. Where are the biggest gaps in these rankings? Thanks for all the hard work!
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\nYes. Thank you for bringing that up, it's an important topic to discuss - while one team might be ranked above another, that doesn't mean the teams are separated by much at all. On both sides, there seems to be an early top-4 that have separated themselves from the pack. The pack is a little closer on the girls side, though.
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\nRough groupings for the boys:
\n
\nGroup1.0 = #1-4 (NXN scores would be projected around 95-135 points)
\nGroup2.0 = #5-8 (NXN scores would be projected around 185-225 points)
\nGroup3.0 = #9-22 (NXN scores would be projected around 255-295 points)
\nGroup3.5 = #23-53ish (NXN scores would be projected around 305-375 points - no real gap to make the groups smaller than that)
\n
\n#22 Liverpool is kind of straddling the groups, but they are slightly closer to Group 3.0 than 3.5 (and their team scores against Saratoga in Group3.0 and Fayetteville-Manlius in Group2.0 certainly reflect that).
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\nBiggest gap, at the moment, is from #4 to #5, though from #8 to #9 is also a bit of a jump (although #9 Henderson hasn't really raced much yet, with last weekend their first notable race). All of the top 4 seem like potential NXN Champions if things go their way; the next four teams all seem like potential trophy contenders, but clearly a step or two behind the title contenders at this point in the season.","date_added":"Oct 4th 2013, 1:07am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"874388":{"pb_id":"51318","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874388","comment_id":"874388","member_id":"51318","comment":"40 deep is great! Watchout it seems to me like there is a bit of a gap between 4 or 5 and the rest of the field. Do the speed ratings show that? Gig Harbor beat North Central quite handily at Firman and Dana Hills was not as impressive at their own invitational as they have been in past years. Those two, along with York, usually come along very well at the end of the season, but from my view, the talent loaded in the top 5 teams maybe too much to overcome. Where are the biggest gaps in these rankings? Thanks for all the hard work!","date_added":"Oct 4th 2013, 12:49am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"MURICA","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=51318","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=51318","pb_wally_id":"1241831"},"874369":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874369","comment_id":"874369","member_id":"43715","comment":"Texas has a couple of teams that aren't far from the rankings, and could very well end up ranked in the next update with good races this weekend, in addition to US#40 Southlake Carroll.
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\nThough neither state quite made the national rankings, Massachusetts and Rhode Island both have a team on the national bubble.
\n
\nFlorida and Michigan boys teams are a bit further back and not on the national bubble, but are on the radar.
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\nYes, the difference between those states and Utah is pretty significant, at least at this point in the season.","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 11:53pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"874367":{"pb_id":"45736","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874367","comment_id":"874367","member_id":"45736","comment":"Thanks for undertaking thankless task....
\nThe fact that many in top 40 today may not be there by Thanksgiving is just the way things are in a sport in which no two venues are comparable and factors such as altitude and weather and course surface on any particular day can skew results.
\nQuestion are Utah teams so good that 5 are ranked as compared to ZERO for Michigan, Mass. and R.I.? Forget Texas and Florida.","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 11:46pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Bsarno1","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45736","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Bsarno1.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1116260"},"874365":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874365","comment_id":"874365","member_id":"43715","comment":"
<\/a>Mattman714, on , said:<\/p>\nHow can you rank Canyon (Anaheim) CA ahead of Brea Olinda CA when Brea has beaten Canyon definitively this year at both the Cross Country Classic meet on 9-21-13 and at their league cluster meet yesterday? I don't believe Canyon had any scoring runners hurt for either of those meets.
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\nCanyon didn't have any runners missing, but didn't run as well as they have in other meets. They were better at the Laguna Hills Invite the week before the Cross Country Classic.
\n
\nIf I was going 50 deep, Brea Olinda would have been ranked.","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 11:21pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"874348":{"pb_id":"51315","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874348","comment_id":"874348","member_id":"51315","comment":"How can you rank Canyon (Anaheim) CA ahead of Brea Olinda CA when Brea has beaten Canyon definitively this year at both the Cross Country Classic meet on 9-21-13 and at their league cluster meet yesterday? I don't believe Canyon had any scoring runners hurt for either of those meets.","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 10:55pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"https:\/\/fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net\/static-ak\/rsrc.php\/v2\/yo\/r\/UlIqmHJn-SK.gif","pb_title":"Mattman714","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=51315","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Mattman714.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1241501"},"874324":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"874324","comment_id":"874324","member_id":"43715","comment":"Ogden is a very good team, and certainly on the bubble for both regional and national accolades (in a national race, they'd be about 10-15 points from the #37-40 teams).
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\nI don't really take into account who wins what races early in the season. Instead, I look at what the athletes run, because the caliber of athletes you have is what determines how good your team can be. Also, you're never going to get clear rankings if you play the "who beat who" game early in the season, particularly in areas where there are so many good teams that they beat up on eachother throughout the year (such as in Utah).
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\nAs for the teams you mention, though, it can be noted that both Orem and Davis were missing a scorer at Bob Firman: Davis was without Kimball Potter, and Orem without both of their frosh varsity guys (the Riding bros, who I have pegged as their #4 and #6). Ogden had everyone there. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to make excuses for their teams performances, but I have to take missing runners into account. Ogden had the better day, and deserved to place higher in the meet, but in answering the question of who would seem to be the better team (at this point) requires me to consider all the angles.
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\nFood for thought: Orem beat Ogden at every spot at Firman except #5. And their #5 that day was their normal #7; their #4, who beat Ogden's #4, was their normal #5.
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\nDavis v. Lone Peak: Yes, Davis has beaten Lone Peak this year (at BYU). And yes, everyone was there on that day. But that doesn't mean that Lone Peak's best vs. Davis' best is always going to end in that order (just look at the Ogden\/Orem\/Davis situation for an example).
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\nThere are many different ways you can look at rankings: You can rank teams based on who has beaten who (though that would get convoluted pretty fast unless every individual on every team is always on top of their game and the team standings at every meet matches expectations every time), you can rank teams based on who would come out on top of they all ran today, you can rank teams based on who has the best potential, you can rank teams based on what their average race would look like, etc. ... for my rankings, what I do is look at how good the individual athletes have been over the past 3 weeks, over the past 4 weeks, over the past 5 weeks, (etc.) and take their best races from those time periods and average them together and score out the teams like they run in a meet. This takes into account many variables that people tend to want as significant factors (myself included): How good you are when you're at your best, good you've been on average if you didn't have a good race in a few weeks, and a more recent outlook answer to the "what have you done for me lately" question. Yes, it ignores team standings, but team standings are a measure of how the teams compared on THAT day on THAT course, rather than either how good (whether on average or at their best) the teams are this year, or how the teams would compare if you lined them up and raced today.
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\nI'll pay more attention to how the team standings at meets look once we get to championship season, because that's the goal for pretty much every team: win a championship, or place as well as you can at the state\/regional\/national meet (or whatever end-goal you have as a team). At that point, I think how well a team places on those days matter (you have to run well as a team when it counts, and when you get to that point it certainly counts). Until then, it's how well the kids on the team do when they're running well and what they've done recently.","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 10:26pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"874206":{"pb_id":"50819","pb_type":"members","likes":"1","parent_id":"0","pid":"874206","comment_id":"874206","member_id":"50819","comment":"Why will you Not recognize Ogden, UT? They beat Orem & Davis at both Bob Firman and won at Murray. Davis has also beaten Lone Peak!","date_added":"Oct 3rd 2013, 3:33pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":183932,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"COL","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=50819","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/COLLqqsTnzt.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1218302"}},"last_id":"874206","url":"comments.php?item_type=news&item_id=183932&item_url=profile.php?member_id=43861"}